Robinhood and Revolut are now pitching retail investors on SpaceX. And this could be the biggest IPO in history at a super accessible price of $135. The valuation would put SpaceX somewhere around 1.75 trillion. That means overnight, SpaceX could be worth more than Tesla.
And the part that really catches people’s attention is retail access. Up to 30% of the offering could go to individual investors, which is unusually high for a tech IPO. So naturally, people are saying this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for regular investors to finally get into one of the most wanted private companies in the world.
But as a retail investor, the first question I had was: why now?
Because for almost two decades, SpaceX was basically off-limits to ordinary people. Venture capital firms, private funds, institutions, and insiders got access while most of the value was created in private. Now, all of a sudden retail investors are being invited to the party?
The VC Dump Narrative
One of the most common narratives is that this is just the moment VCs and early institutions dump their shares onto regular people. In other words, it’s an opportunity for the big money to exit at a high price, at the expense of people like us. I get why people think that, because SpaceX has created insane private-market gains, and whenever a company finally goes public after that much value has already been created, retail investors should be skeptical.
But the day-one mechanics are a little different. This is expected to be an all-primary IPO, which means the shares being sold are new shares, and the money goes to SpaceX itself, not directly into early investors’ pockets. Existing shareholders are not supposed to be selling into the IPO, and Musk himself is reportedly locked up for about a year. So the simple version of “VCs cash out, retail gets dumped on” is not exactly what’s happening on day one.
The Optimistic Valuation
The more accurate concern is more subtle.
If you look at SpaceX purely from a financial-model perspective, a lot of analysts would say the valuation looks aggressive. The company is incredible, but the current price assumes a very optimistic future. SpaceX reported a large loss in 2025, and the only clearly profitable part of the business right now is Starlink. A lot of the valuation depends on what SpaceX could become later: global connectivity, Starship, defense, space infrastructure, AI infrastructure, and these are the markets that are still very early.
So on paper, it’s very clear and obvious that it’s overpriced. But the IPO price is actually determined by more than just a financial model, because there are also things like scarcity, emotion, momentum, and belief
And that is exactly what makes this one so complex but also interesting. So if you do some investment research and try to get some signals of the sentiment, like if you look at Reddit right now.
Some people think it smells off because early investors already made their money. Some think the whole thing is being rushed and want to wait for the hype to cool down. Some are hardcore believers in Elon Musk and the long-term SpaceX mission, and some are just hoping it makes Elon look good so Tesla goes up with it. And also there are people buying for FOMOs because they are afraid that this is the only chance they can get.
The point is, nobody agrees. So all of these feelings, views, and perceptions collectively is what we call market emotion, which is highly unpredictable and hard to value
The Catch in IPO Setup
Now, if we look back at the actual setup the IPO,
SpaceX charged ahead and even locked in the price a week early, which almost never happened before. On top of that, There is already twice as much money trying to get in comparing to the amount that’s available to be traded, like under 5% of the company, and it’s basically supply and demand in its extreme form. In other words, the first-day price can move very aggressively.
This is the setup for a very strong first-day pop for the IPO price, but it is not necessarily giving everyday investors a fair chance to buy a long-term asset. So the real issue is that retail investors are being offered access at a very late, very expensive, and very emotionally charged stage
And all of this should not feel brand new to you.
Remember when Facebook first went public? It was a huge company, everyone wanted in, and then the stock sat below its starting price for sixteen months. So even a famous and successful company can leave its day-one buyers stuck, waiting forever just to break even.
Saudi Aramco went the other way. People were so fired up, and there were so few shares to go around that it blew past any reasonable price almost instantly. When everyone wants in and there’s barely anything to buy like zero liquidity, the price stops making sense for a while.
The one I’d really watch is Deliveroo because they made the same big deal about finally letting regular people in, and then the stock dropped almost a third on its very first day.
And now if you look at Rivian which is a big exciting story that jumped on day one and then lost almost 80% of its value once reality set in.
So letting normal people in and those people doing well are two totally different things. The pattern is actually pretty simple: a famous and incredible company can still be a bad day-one entry. A huge first day mostly tells you how few shares there are and how badly people want them, but it doesn’t really guarantee any retail profit. In other words, there’s a high chance that they are significantly mispriced.
Investing in a Dream?
But still, a lot of people are putting their money in to support the dream and human future. The fact that the money you put in really does go into building the actual business, the satellite network, huge deals worth tens of billions to run AI for companies like Anthropic and Google. Also if Starlink keeps printing money and the AI bet works, the people buying today might look really smart in ten years. That’s a real possibility.
But one thing to in mind is that:
If this current price is what you’re paying right now, you’re assuming an extremely optimistic future for spaceX. Like you’re betting on everything to go right.
hope you enjoy the read — let me know what you think!